Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Regional Round Playoff Previews

Blake Winslow. LJWorld.
Olathe North (3-6) at Free State (8-1)
Where: Free State Athletic Stadium
Last Meeting: Free State defeated Olathe North, 34-28, in a week four thriller that went down to the wire.

Free State
The Firebirds are loaded across the board.  Arguably their most talented player is senior Kyle McFarland who mans the quarterback position as well as one of the cornerback spots.  At 6-foot-3 he's extremely difficulty to throw against on defense because he's so much taller than the prototypical corner.  Also in the defensive secondary is safety Joe Dineen, one of the league's most violent hitters, and Demarko Bobo, a shutdown corner.  Corban Schmidt is the team's leading tackler.  His 93 tackles ranked fourth overall through the Sunflower League's regular season.  Tye Hughes is a threat to take the ball the distance anytime he gets his hands on it, and running back TJ Cobbs has added 12 rushing touchdowns of his own this year.  The Firebirds are also relentless pass rushers, with three players--Blake Winslow, Keith Loneker and Cody Stanclift--ranking among the league's top ten in sacks, and another in Fred Wyatt bringing the heat on every play.

Olathe North
The Eagles are one of the league's youngest teams.  Early one they struggled to find an identity, falling to 0-4 on the season, but they've since responded winning winning three of their past five games including pulling a major upset against Olathe South last week.  Olathe North goes as their sophomore running back Venus Triplett goes.  He's joined in the backfield by fellow running back Elbert Johnson, who has plenty of speed to burn, and quarterback Dontez Sanchez who's done a great job managing the quarterback position since taking over mid-season.  The wildcard?  Keep an eye on sophomore tight end Josh Moore.  At 6-5, 250-pounds, he's one of the league's most talented up-and-coming players.  Olathe North has been using him more creatively in the latter portion of the season and it's worked very well.

Historical Stat
These teams developed a minor rivalry in the late 2000s.  In 2008, Free State defeated Olathe North, 10-6, in Sectional play in a defensive struggle.  The Firebirds made their way to a state title appearance in the following weeks.  In 2009, the teams met up again in Sectionals, but this time Olathe North had something to say about it.  The Eagles thumped Free State, 41-28.  In the victory, Olathe North ran the ball 63 times for 414 yards (247 from James Franklin) and did not throw one pass. 

What to Expect
Two extremely confident teams.  That's what you'll see on Friday night.  Olathe North gave Free State everything they could handle in week four and you could make an argument it was the Firebirds' closest call outside of their loss to Olathe South in week three.  Olathe North head coach Gene Wier is a savant when it when it comes to late-season play and he'll have something cooked up to give the Firebirds all they can handle.  Free State, on paper, looks like the better team.  They have more experience, more playmaking weapons and a ton of momentum.  They just have to make sure they harness all of it in the right way, or they could easily be upset.

Jordan Darling. LJWorld.
SM East (7-2) at  
Olathe East (5-4)
Where: CBAC
Last Meeting: SM East defeated Olathe East, 41-21, in week five.
Live Broadcast: SMEHarbinger.net

Olathe East
The running back/fullback combination of Hayden Frazier and Ryan Woodson is going to be key for the Hawks' successes Friday.  The two have combined for 1,602 yards and 17 touchdowns on the season, so you'll know they'll be getting their carries this week.  Jalen Branson is also an Olathe East skill position player to keep an eye on.  He's rushed for over 200 yards and he's also developed into a standout in the secondary.  Quarterback John Blazevic hasn't thrown the ball as much this season as he did last year, but he has great experience having led the Hawks to a Sub-State berth last season.  Keep an eye on safety Al Smith as well.  He's a big time hitter, but he absolutely cannot afford to let the SM East receivers get behind him in this game.

SM East
The Lancers are led on offense by quarterback and KU commit, Jordan Darling, and receiver Connor Rellihan.  The two will connect on a variety of bubble screens, slip passes and comeback routes all night.  They've been consistent on that every game this year.  The player keeping the defenses honest by running the football will be Patrick Blackburn, a true power running back who is hard to bring down on first contact.  Blackburn also starts on the Lancer's linebacking core which I would argue is the league's top unit.  Led by David Stewart, the core also consists of his twin, Sam Stewart, Ryan Carter, and stud sophomore Kyle Ball in addition to Blackburn.  Up front their top defensive lineman is Dominique Atkinson, who you could call one of the league's best defensive tackles.  Nobody, and I mean nobody, has run the ball effectively against them this year.  If I'm not mistaken, the only player to rush for over 100 meaningful yards (not 4th quarter yards against the second stringers) against their stout front eight was Gabe Guild in week one. 

Historical Stat
There really isn't much history between these two teams.  A funny story: back in 2004, when I was a lowly freshman at SM West, our varsity team had just beat Free State in a Regional overtime game out at Haskell Stadium.  The post-game jubilation was taken to another level when a student (who turned out to be an unreliable one) reported to the celebrating crowd that SM East had just defeated Olathe East in their Regional game (Olathe East was basically viewed as the team to beat in 6A in 2004 and that would have been an upset of colossal proportions).  Which meant SM West would have had an easier route to the Sub-State game.  On the drive home we passed the SM East players' bus and the dejected looks on their faces told another story.  The jubilation was muted.  Needless to say SM West ended up squaring off with Olathe East the next Friday.  There's my awesome little story.

What to Expect
I'll sit right here and tell you this game's coming down to one thing: Olathe East's running game against SM East's rush defense.  That's it, and that's all, and the rest is just for decoration.  Olathe East probably has more momentum than SM East at this time, given the fact that they swept their district and looked great doing it, but it's playoff time and I'm sure SM East will be equally amped up.  At the end of the day it's coming down to which side budges when Olathe East runs the football at SM East.

Kharon Brown. LJWorld.
Lawrence (7-2) at 
Gardner-Edgerton (6-3)
Where: Gardner-Edgerton
Last Meeting: N/A. This is the first time these teams have met in the modern era.

Gardner-Edgerton
The Trailblazers are led by arguably the best running back in Kansas City in Traevohn Wrench, and the crazy thing is that he's only a junior.  He nearly capped 1,000 rushing yards in the last three games.  For the season he rushed for 1,940 yards and 22 touchdowns on 207 carries.  Because of a turf toe injury he didn't have more than 20 yards rushing after the first two games--so he's basically put up those numbers in seven games.  I would venture to say he's pound-for-pound the best running back Johnson County has see since a guy named Darren Sproles.  And that's not hyperbole.  He's phenomenal.  Gardner-Edgerton's quarterback, Jared Hobby, spends most of his time handing the ball off but he's still passed for over 1,100 yards on the season.  His touchdown-to-interception ratio isn't great (11:10) which shows he's susceptible to tossing picks if you put pressure on him.  But to make Gardner-Edgerton pass in the first place you have to shut down Wrench and nobody's been able to do that lately.

Lawrence
The Chesty Lions operated the Sunflower League's most prototypical version of a spread.  Quarterback Brad Strauss is one the best players to have graced the league the past five years and he has all the tools to do anything on the field.  The top three receivers for LHS are Erick Mayo, Drake Hofer and Will Thompson, each of whom offer a unique receiving style.  Mayo and Thompson are more speed based, while Hofer is a great possession receiver.  Tyrone Jenkins gets carries alongside Strauss out of the backfield, but LHS' focus is on the passing game.  Defensively the Chesty Lions are led by their wild and crazy defensive tackle Kharon Brown.  He's built like stump at 5-foot-10, 220 pounds, and his motor never stops running.  He'll need to have a big day to slow down Wrench.  Asaph Jewsome and Hunter Harrelson have been the team's leading tacklers through nine weeks.  The secondary is led by the play of Mayo and Strauss. 

Historical Stat
These teams haven't met in the modern era so this will be the first of its kind.  One unique perspective is that both schools can claim a Simone-winner among their ranks.  In 1993, LHS' Jason Thoren led the Chesty Lions to a 6A state title and won the award in the process, recording 170 tackles in addition to rushing for 1,260 yards.  Gardner-Edgerton boasts arguably the most talented all-around athlete in Kansas City history in Bubba Starling, the 2010 recipient of the award.  Starling signed to play football at Nebraska, but ultimately decided to play for the Kansas City Royals when they drafted him fifth overall in the 2011 MLB draft and offered a $7.5 million signing bonus.

What to Expect
Not that they don't already, but LHS needs to come out with the goal to score on literally every possession.  Gardner-Edgerton's defense isn't great, but they've faced a ton of spread offenses in the EKL and the Chesty Lions' attack will be nothing new for them.  Gardner-Edgerton's rushing attack on the other hand has been a shocking revelation for the three Sunflower League teams who've faced it the past three weeks.  This was evidenced by the amount of long touchdown runs Wrench was able to put up and the fact that he rushed for over 300 yards in each of those games.  I have a strong feeling this will be a high-scoring affair and it could come down to who gets a defensive stop here or there.  Another storyline is the Strauss and Wrench Simone campaigns.  I think both players are close to being locks as finalists for the award, but the loser of this game will probably be eliminated from actual contention to win the award.  All in all, if you like scoring, this should be the game for you.

Reed Coda. Mid-Statesports.com
Blue Valley Northwest (5-4) at 
SM West (8-1)
Where: SM South District Stadium
Last Meeting: These teams last met on November 7, 2008, in the Regional playoff round. BV Northwest won the game, 27-14.

SM West
The Vikings are going go as far as running back Brett Sterbach takes them.  As the league's leading rusher with 1,485 yards, not to mention 17 touchdowns, Sterbach has been SM West's most consistent force all season.  They'll need big games from him from here on out to do well.  Quarterback AJ Verdini will also play a major role.  If he can find his receivers with the rate of success he's been able to in the second half of the season the Vikings will do very well.  He throws a tremendous deep ball and at 6-foot-5 he has no problem seeing down the field.  His top target is Andre Maloney, but Joel Spiller is also great option out of the slot and receiver Ben Lake has come on strong late in the season.  Up front the Vikings are led by offensive tackle/nose guard Austin Chambers.  His size has given opposing lineman and linebackers trouble all season.  Defensive end Lee Spight is one of the league's top pass rushers with five sacks, and he's backed up by linebackers Marquan Osbey, Rashaun Owens and Max Bullard, who all rank among the league's top eleven in tackles.  The Vikings' secondary is led by Maloney as well as safety Kez Demby.

BV Northwest
I've only seen the Huskies play once this season but it was pretty evident who their playmakers were.  Their top receivers are Austin Moses and Jaqwan Stone.  Those two players have combined for 884 receiving yards on 79 catches and 10 touchdowns.  Both are very quick, very fast and can take the ball the distance on any play.  The Huskies' top player overall is running back Reed Coda.  He's carried the ball 221 times for 1,215 yards and 14 touchdowns.  Like Moses and Stone, he's an extremely fast and shifty player.  If the Viking defense doesn't do a good job of containing him they'll have plenty of problems.  

Historical Stat
I'd be lying if I said there wasn't a rivalry between these teams, because even though they haven't met in four years it seems like every time they play there's something on the line.  Back in 2004 these two met up in district play, and BV Northwest, led by Brian Thies, torched SM West, 34-7, creating a situation where the Vikings had to win the next week to make the playoffs.  In 2005 the two met up again in districts in a do-or-die situation for SM West, and the Vikings responded with a 17-7 victory in a game that was close throughout.  The Vikings lost to the Huskies in 2007, when they elected to go for a two-point conversion and the win on their last offensive play of the game.  Then, in 2008, undefeated SM West lost to a 2-7 BV Northwest team in a major Regional round upset.

What to Expect
By all means this is a revenge game for SM West, even though it's taking placing four years late.  For that reason I expect SM West to come up pretty fired up and ready to play.  BV Northwest runs a high-potent spread attack and it may take SM West's defense a little while to adjust to it, but I think the Vikings have the horses to slow it down eventually.  BV Northwest will probably stack the box in attempt to make SM West rely on the passing game.  It's not that SM West can't pass, but rather that BV Northwest would probably rather take their chances in coverage as opposed to letting Sterbach run all over their defense.  It should be a fun game to watch as both teams boast quite a few playmakers. 

10 comments:

TheImpaler said...

TheImp’s week 10 picks. Last week 7-1 Season 45-15. Better last week except for the Falcons hanging me out to dry.

BVNW (5-4) @ SMW (8-1) Vikings look for revenge for their bad 2008 loss here. Huskies have not seen a defense like SMW this year and I look for them to struggle to score points. West on the other hand seems to be hitting on all cylinders and SHOULD cruise here. The only note of concern was the uncharacteristic kicking game glitches last week against SMNW. A missed extra point and a botched punt. Wasn't at the game so don't know the details but that has to get fixed. SMW 38 BVNW 13

SME (7-2) @ OE (5-4) Looking at the scores the last two weeks you might think the Hawks are coming around at the right time to make a playoff run. I don't believe it. They benefitted from a banged up SMS squad and a bunch of turnovers by both teams. I think Eli is right, the Lancers are exactly the right time to totally shut down O East. The Stewart boys and the Lanc line should have field day putting some licks on Hayden Frazier and the Hawk D will have no answer for Rellihan and Darling. SME 41 OE 10

LAW (7-2) @ GE (6-3) Again, I think the Lions are exactly the team GE doesn't want to face in round 1. The Lion D will be able to focus on Wrench and meanwhile the Lawrence offense has too many weapons for a mediocre GE defense to hope to contain. The only chink in the Lions' armour is the kicking game but their ability to punch in two point conversions over 50% of the time has made that less of a factor. As much as I'd love GE to win this game and give SMW two home games, it ain't gonna happen. LAW 33 GE 24

ON (3-6) @ LFS(8-1) The Eagles slopped their way into the playoffs with wins over a weak ONW team and a rapidly fading OS team. Now they have to step up and play with the big boys. Weir will get this team back on track but not this week. Firebirds are the favorite to win the state championship in my book. Look for LFS-SME and LAW-SMW rematches next week. LFS 42 ON 14

Eli Underwood said...

Slow day on the comments section... let's get the picks in!

SMS watcher said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Free State Fan said...

Goin' for the season sweep against ON. It's true, we had our hands full with them in week 4. Many of our guys were still nursing injuries from the two prior weeks and we did not play well. To ON's credit, they were a big part of that. They were able to score early and FS had to fight for the win. This time, FS is completely healthy, playing fantastic on both sides of the ball and will give ON fits. If FS can mix the pass and run early and keep ON off balance, the O should score at will. It will be up to the D to make stops. As I've documented well the last few weeks, the FS D is playing at another level. Prediction: FS Firebirds fly high and win.

I usually only predict FS wins, but this week, I am stepping out of that comfort zone for my brothers-from-other-mothers across town and predicting a LAW win as well. LAW is too good and I am publicly pulling for them to beat GE. I would love to see LAW and FS again to guarantee a Lawrence team in the state championship. Go 'Birds AND Lions!!

SMS watcher said...

Winners:
LFS
GE
SMW
SME

SMW should have an easy time with BVNW. SMW is much more physical and they have a better rushing team than the OE who ran all over BVNW. I also like the SMW secondary and defense.

Likewise, SME should beat OE by 2 touchdowns or more. I think Eli gives OE a little too much credit for hitting their stride. The 2 BV teams in the OE district weren't run stoppers. OE scored 3 times offensively against SMS out of 10 possessions --(OK, really 9 if you throw out the last possession at the end of the game) 4 times OE started their drives inside the SMS 35 and only got points on 2. If Darling gets time -- and I think he will -- he'll pick them apart.

GE will out-physical LAW. LAW has lost twice to bigger teams that can run the ball. Also, Wrench appears to be unstoppable - 900 yards vs OS, ON, and ONW in districts. Probably will come down to which team can stop the other once or twice. IDK, maybe I just don't give the LAW defense enough credit. I do hope LAW wins but I'm picking GE.

Haven't seen either LFS or ON but I'll just go with LFS since they're probably the best team in the Sunflower League.

Slugger said...

SLugger Picks-

BVNW @ SMW - SMW runs away with this one. SMW 34 BVNW 21

SME @ OE - After all year people bagging on Myers, he gets his team to the playoffs again. His run ends here. SME run defense is crazy good. SME 28 - OE 7

LAW @ GE - This is the game to see this week. THe Lions haven't seen anyone like T-Wrench. GE sees the spread all the time. I think Deiner has the coaching edge and will propell his team to the next round. GE 35 - LAW 28

ON @ LFS - Weir will have his boys ready to play, but too much talent on the LFS side. LFS 28 - ON 14

Eli Underwood said...

SM North head coach Dennis Grayless has resigned following the Indians' 0-9 campaign. I'll have a story up sometime this afternoon on it.

Free State Fan said...

I think LAW will be fine against Wrench and GE. He is a great back no doubt, but he has had his big games against average defenses. LAW can fly to the ball and will not stop him, but keep him under control enough to win.

Seth said...

Traevohn Wrench meet Kharon Brown. Over and over and over again. Strauss 4 to 5 touchdowns against a weak defense. LHS 35-21.

Rooting for SMW and LFS. Love to play you again

MahValley said...

My picks this week

LFS
SME
GE
SMW